MANILA -Although Vice President Sara Duterte remains the preferred candidate for the 2028 Philippine presidential election, her lead has narrowed, according to early survey findings shared by Ranjit Rye, president of the OCTA Research Group.

Speaking on Wednesday in an interview with One News’ Storycon, Rye said support for Duterte had declined “for the first time in four quarters,” allowing her closest rival to close the gap.

“It’s not anymore a universe away,” he explained. “The number two person is just between nine to 12 points away. The gap narrowed in just one quarter.”

Full results from the survey conducted by OCTA Research are expected to be released next week.

Robredo Rises to Second Place

Former vice president and now Naga City mayor Leni Robredo has emerged as Duterte’s closest challenger, overtaking television host-turned-senator Raffy Tulfo in the latest rankings.

Rye said Robredo’s support saw a significant increase in the first quarter of the year. “Mayor Leni gained a lot in this quarter, nearly double digit. We’re still studying why,” he said. “The long view is that her numbers have improved. She was always number three… now, she’s the candidate after the Vice President.”

Robredo has not yet announced whether she intends to run in 2028.

The OCTA research head also noted that Tulfo’s decision not to pursue a presidential bid may have influenced voter preferences, contributing to Robredo’s rise.

Other potential contenders mentioned in surveys include Senators Bong Go, Bam Aquino, and Francis Pangilinan, though all trail significantly behind the leading candidates.

Impeachment Proceedings May Affect Support

Rye said ongoing impeachment proceedings involving Duterte could further affect her standing in future surveys.

He added that the political situation may shape voter sentiment in the coming months, particularly in the second quarter of the year.

“The expectation is that this could have a negative impact on her numbers,” Rye said.

With the 2028 election still years away, analysts say voter preferences remain highly fluid. The emergence of Robredo as a stronger contender, combined with shifting alliances and unresolved political issues, suggests that the race is far from settled.

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